Economic Indicator Intelligence
Key economic indicators from FRED with change tracking, release calendars, and surprise metrics
Real-time tracking of major US economic indicators (CPI, PCE, NFP, GDP, unemployment, fed funds rate, Treasury yields, VIX) sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API. Includes period-over-period changes, upcoming release dates, and actual-vs-consensus surprise scoring for prediction market and macro trading strategies.
How customers use this
Prediction market edge from consensus data
Know the consensus CPI forecast and position on Polymarket before the print. When you have the economist consensus and the market is mispriced relative to it, you have a statistical edge.
Surprise trading
When NFP beats consensus by 2x, immediately trade the Fed rate decision market. Economic surprises have predictable downstream effects on interest rate expectations — this data lets you react in seconds.
Macro risk dashboard
Track yield curve, VIX, and fed funds rate to assess overall market risk. Build a composite view of macro conditions to inform position sizing and risk management across your entire portfolio.
Sample data
Example responses from the API. Each query returns structured JSON.
GET /api/v1/econ/indicators?series=CPIAUCSL,UNRATE
{
"indicators": [
{ "series_id": "CPIAUCSL", "name": "CPI - All Urban Consumers", "value": 314.69, "date": "2025-10-01", "units": "index_1982_84=100" },
{ "series_id": "UNRATE", "name": "Unemployment Rate", "value": 4.1, "date": "2025-11-01", "units": "percent" }
]
}GET /api/v1/econ/releases?days=14
{
"releases": [
{ "name": "CPI", "date": "2025-12-11T13:30:00Z", "source": "BLS", "consensus": 2.8, "prior": 2.6 },
{ "name": "Nonfarm Payrolls", "date": "2025-12-06T13:30:00Z", "source": "BLS", "consensus": 185000, "prior": 227000 }
],
"total_upcoming": 8
}GET /api/v1/econ/surprise
{
"surprises": [
{ "indicator": "NFP", "date": "2025-11-01", "actual": 227000, "consensus": 185000, "surprise_pct": 22.7, "direction": "above" },
{ "indicator": "CPI", "date": "2025-11-13", "actual": 2.6, "consensus": 2.5, "surprise_pct": 4.0, "direction": "above" }
]
}Use cases
- ✓ Track economic indicators for Polymarket event markets
- ✓ Build economic event trading calendars
- ✓ Quantify data release surprises for market impact
- ✓ Monitor macro trends for prediction market positions
- ✓ Research economic indicator accuracy vs market pricing
Response fields
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| series_id | string | FRED series identifier (e.g., CPIAUCSL, UNRATE) |
| name | string | Human-readable indicator name |
| value | number | Latest reported value |
| previous_value | number | Prior period value |
| change | number | Absolute change from prior period |
| change_pct | number | Percentage change from prior period |
| release_date | date | Date of latest data release |
| next_release | date | Estimated next release date |
| frequency | string | Data release frequency (daily, monthly, quarterly) |
| units | string | Unit of measurement |
Example queries
Get specific indicators
GET /api/v1/econ/indicators?series=CPI,PCE,UNRATEReturns latest values for CPI, PCE, and unemployment
Upcoming releases
GET /api/v1/econ/releases?days=30Economic data releases in the next 30 days
Recent surprises
GET /api/v1/econ/surpriseBiggest actual-vs-consensus surprises
Free dataset stats
GET /api/v1/econ/statsReturns indicator coverage and update metadata